Clarksons: Container trade trends are difficult to assess

Source: 5688.cn

Clarksons' latest weekly report shows that COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war have affected container shipping, but also made it more difficult to determine the growth dynamics.

In particular, as mature economies decline, growth is concentrated in Asia and emerging markets.

Driven by bottlenecks caused by the pandemic and e-commerce sales, container trade grew by about 4% year-on-year in the second half of 2020.

However, with the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and the knock-on effects on the world economy, inflation and the "cost of living" crisis for consumers in many regions, container trade quickly reversed, with TEU volumes falling by 4% in 2022.

Trevor Crowe, an analyst at Clarkson, said: "With consumers still under pressure and retailers facing overstocking in 2023, clear vulnerabilities in the world economy remain."

In the first half of 2023, containerized trade volumes fell 5 percent year on year, and through June, containerized trade volumes had declined in 19 of the past 21 months.

While some volatility points to an improvement in the third quarter of 2023, Crowe said the limited growth in this period was due to diverging international trade trends.

Crowe noted that "the volume of East-West trade on the continent, driven primarily by 'Western' economies, is expected to decrease by 1.6 million TEU in 2023 compared to 2019; While the eastbound Trans-Pacific route saw an increase of 2.3 million TEU, the westbound Asia-Europe route only saw an increase of 100,000 TEU, while the transatlantic route and the return route from North America and Europe to Asia saw a decrease in volume. Most of the growth was in trade involving developing economies."

In comparison, intra-Asia will increase by 2.5 million TEUs, Asian to Middle East/Indian Subcontinent/South America and Africa trade will increase by 2.4 million TEUs, Indian subcontinent exports will increase by 1.3 million TEUs, and African exports to the Northern Hemisphere will increase by 500,000 TEUs.

Crowe explains: "As a result, it is difficult to identify long-term trends after large fluctuations in container volumes. Overall potential growth is limited compared to "pre-pandemic" levels, with expansion focused on trade involving Asia and other developing economies. Geopolitical/economic trends (" reshoring ", "friendly forces", regionalization, supply chain de-risk) will affect future trade, but container market players still want to achieve a more determined and broader expansion.

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