Dryad Global Report: Attacks on Merchant Ships in the Red Sea Have Decreased

Source: 5688.cn

On November 19, 2023, a Houthi armed helicopter approached the cargo ship "Galaxy Leader" off the coast of Yemen in the Red Sea.

The conflict in the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait region may enter a prolonged period of attrition as the coalition forces attempt to weaken the military capabilities of the Houthi forces. Both sides are considering tactical shifts, while Western militaries are unable to prevent the attacks.

Security company Dryad Global reported this week that attacks on merchant ships have decreased, while attacks on coalition forces continue steadily. The reduction in merchant ship attacks is due to many vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.

Dryad Global CEO Corey Ranslem told Container News, "If Houthi attacks continue to hinder maritime passage through the Red Sea, the international coalition may have to conduct ground operations to mitigate the Houthi threat.

"Fearing prolonged attrition, the U.S. and the U.K. have invested heavily in military efforts to counter the threats to international maritime routes, but with negligible results."

The Houthi movement's strategy may be changing, as the routes for most commercial shipping from Asia to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope are significantly longer.

"There is evidence that the Houthis are shifting from full-scale offensives to a war of attrition strategy," Ranslem said.

However, current tactics are expected to signal a war of attrition rather than an end to the conflict.

"This could prolong the conflict within the Red Sea. Currently, the total number of attacks on merchant ships has decreased, but they are still occurring."

Dryad states that as long as the Houthis have the weapons to launch attacks, or until the Gaza conflict is effectively resolved, they will continue their attacks.

Meanwhile, the coalition continues to take action against Houthi targets in Yemen.

"The U.S.- and U.K.-led multinational coalition continues to launch airstrikes to weaken Houthi military capabilities. So far, they have targeted over 90 locations, destroying approximately 25% of the Houthis' ballistic missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, coastal radar systems, and suicide drones."

However, Dryad acknowledges that the assessment of Houthi capabilities is partly based on educated guesses and information gathered from both government and non-government sources.

Meanwhile, Dryad continues to question the coalition's strategy, suggesting that the long-term costs may be too high.

"The global coalition is using million-dollar missiles to intercept low-cost Houthi rockets and drones worth thousands of dollars, significantly reducing the coalition's military efficiency. Each $5,000 drone launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea costs the U.S. $2 million in air defense weapons," Ranslem said.

Iran assists the Houthis in carrying out attacks in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Aden by providing ship identification data, advanced drones, anti-ship missiles, naval mines, and decoy mines at a much lower and more sustainable cost.

Additionally, Ranslem added, "A command center was established in Sanaa to coordinate ship attacks, and until recently, Iran's MV Behshad (vessel) provided C2 (command and control) capabilities, improving targeting accuracy and frequency."

The MV Behshad is a general cargo ship with a deadweight tonnage of 23,200 and a capacity of up to 970 TEU containers, built in 1999. VesselsValue AIS currently shows this ship heading towards the Gulf of Oman.

Iran's involvement effectively means that eradicating Houthi attacks "will be a long-term effort, dependent on whether Iranian weapons continue to be smuggled into Houthi-controlled ports."

Therefore, Ranslem believes that this costly war for the coalition may also require a change in tactics.

He pointed out, "The coalition may need to adopt new strategies, such as launching advanced offensives on weapons and missile warehouses, mobilization and training camps, targeting commanders, and causing material losses to force the Houthis to cease attacks on vessels in international waterways."

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